A Chicago Blog

Conventionally wisdom has it that it doesn’t really matter who the Democrat candidate is, they will wlk away with the election in November. I can’t help being a contrarian here. Yes, Republicans are about as unpopular as disco, but I don’t think the public is stupid. I think they are far less partisan that most of us in the media, and I don’t think they’ll make their decision in fall based on the status of the Republican brand, as Newt Gingrich suggested yesterday. This election is going to be between John McCain and Barack Obama and their party affiliation borderline irrelevant.

Gingrich is right that the Republican “brand” is toast. But the Democrats aren’t doing all that much better. The fact is both parties have run out of political capital with mainstream common-sense Americans. Yet, we still have to vote for someone don’t we.

12 nuns were turned away from a polling place near Notre Dame because they didn’t have sufficient ID. A scandal I tell you!

Are there theological implications here? Is God a Clinton suporter?

Going into today’s primaries, the punditry has been preoccupied with the question of whether or not Obama can “close the deal.” A valid question, sure. But a more interesting question might be what happens if he wins?

I’m a baseball fan, and every year there is a team that manages to clinch their division relatively early in August. Or worse yet, they never do quite clinch and end up limping into the playoffs. In sports, momentum is everything, and these teams don’t usually do well in the post-season.

To superimpose the metaphor onto politics. Say Obama pulls this thing out; it will be a limping victory. Can he overcome the lack of momentum? Can he and Hillary “unite” and re-energize the party? These are the pertinent questions.

From a political point of view, if Obama wins the nomination, he’d be wise to offer the VP nod to Hillary for precisely this reason; she’s the one with momentum right now and he has to figure out a way to leverage that.

Another year older and what do you get. The Chicago Tribune reports this morning that the Governor’s people are preparing to fight over a $750 million budget gap. The chart below shows that we are (according to Dan Hynes records) off pace for the year, by 0.7%.

The Trib calls this a “shortfall.” Isn’t that one of those words that should be banned from use in the context of government? Is it a shortfall if revenue has not increased as fast as expectations and government spending has grown beyond expectations? Some clarity would help.

It will be interesting to how Springfield behaves this year. Word is, nothing will get done until after November because Democrats don’t want to go into the election with a tax increase on the table, for fear of voter backlash. But will they come back in the veto session and raise our income taxes? You can probably count on it.

Regardless whether a gas-tax holiday will really do anyone any good, Obama’s failure to anticipate and triangulate the issue is exposing a major weakness of his. Yes, sure. I agree that gas-tax holidays are more pandering than anything else. There are probably better ways to deal with the energy problems. But this is not really the point. The point is, should the government self-inflict some pain when the taxpayers are going through a painful time. Obama insists that suspending the federal gas tax would pull dollars away from necessary infrastructure improvements. And yet, this insistence shows a certain arrogance (or naivety) on his part. Americans are smart enough to know that money (especially Federal tax dollars) is fungible and that pain in one area of the budget can be made up for in another. Moreover, transportation bills are notoriously load with pork.

Obama’s position is untenable because it requires he explain why the taxpayers are wrong to want a tax holiday. This will only reinforce the narrative that Obama is an ideologue and an elitest.

The only way to beat a panderer is to out pander. Obama should say, “Yes, we have to do something, and a tax holiday is a good place to start. But in the long run it will no solve the problem … etc, etc.”

Regardless whether a gas-tax holiday will really do anyone any good, Obama’s failure to anticipate and triangulate the issue is exposing a major weakness of his. Yes, sure. I agree that gas-tax holidays are more pandering than anything else. There are probably better ways to deal with the energy problems. But this is not really the point. The point is, should the government self-inflict some pain when the taxpayers are going through a painful time. Obama insists that suspending the federal gas tax would pull dollars away from necessary infrastructure improvements. And yet, this insistence shows a certain arrogance (or naivety) on his part. Americans are smart enough to know that money (especially Federal tax dollars) is fungible and that pain in one area of the budget can be made up for in another. Moreover, transportation bills are notoriously load with pork.

Obama’s position is untenable because it requires he explain why the taxpayers are wrong to want a tax holiday. This will only reinforce the narrative that Obama is an ideologue and an elitest.

The only way to beat a panderer is to out pander. Obama should say, “Yes, we have to do something, and a tax holiday is a good place to start. But in the long run it will no solve the problem … etc, etc.”

It was my own damn fault. But nevertheless it’s gone. If you were linked on my sidebar, please leave a comment here reminding me to re-link you.  Apologies.

Another year older and what do you get. The Chicago Tribune reports this morning that the Governor’s people are preparing to fight over a $750 million budget gap. The chart below shows that we are (according to Dan Hynes records) off pace for the year, by 0.7%.

The Trib calls this a “shortfall.” Isn’t that one of those words that should be banned from use in the context of government? Is it a shortfall if revenue has not increased as fast as expectations and government spending has grown beyond expectations? Some clarity would help.

It will be interesting to how Springfield behaves this year. Word is, nothing will get done until after November because Democrats don’t want to go into the election with a tax increase on the table, for fear of voter backlash. But will they come back in the veto session and raise our income taxes? You can probably count on it.

Following up on my post earlier this week questioning why Jim Thompson cares so much about the Illinois Sports Facility Authority purchasing Wrigley Field, I’ve decided to see if the former governor is getting any expenses reimbursed by the ISFA, for which he serves as chairman.

So this week’s Friday FOIA is a request for Thompson’s expense report and credit card receipts. It is very likely that he doesn’t have any and that the he serves as ISFA Chairman for free. But you never know until you ask.

Here’s the letter if you’re interested.

So I went down to see the immigration protests yesterday. I went packing my video camera thinking I would get lots of interesting footage. But sadly, my battery died just as I was making my way to Federal Plaza (piece of crap). So I was left with only the functions available on my Blackberry. Over all, the protest was pretty tame. I can’t imagine there were more than 10,000 people there … but I’m not an experienced crowd counter.

There were plenty of American flags being flown which was quite encouraging. At least some of these protesters understand that reuniting Mexico is not a mission that will win them many friends.

But despite the pro-American crowd, the podium was filled with the same old socialist tripe. All I had with me was my VoiceNote recorder on my phone. But here are some samples.

America, “The Octopus?”At least that what Evanston alderman Lionel Jean-Baptiste calls us.

Read the rest of this entry »